Free workbook

Which customers
could hurt you?

The whale curve tells you which customers make you money. This workbook answers the other question: where the book could break. Concentration the way a buyer reads it, a risk score per account, and the contribution at risk if the vulnerable accounts walked.

What's inside

  • The buyer's concentration read: largest-account share, top 5, top 10, and the HHI, with the thresholds diligence teams apply
  • A risk score per account built from four honest inputs: revenue share, relationship depth (would the account survive your contact leaving?), months to renewal, and service issues
  • HIGH, WATCH, and OK flags that obey the data, not the relationship's history
  • The number that prices the retention effort: annual contribution dollars sitting in HIGH-risk accounts
  • No macros, no lock-in. Paste up to 100 customers; opens in Excel and imports cleanly into Google Sheets

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How to use it

  1. Paste your customer list: revenue, contribution margin, months to renewal, relationship depth, and issues in the last twelve months. Rough margins beat blanks.
  2. Read the Summary like a buyer would. Top-ten share above 60%, or one account above 15%, is a diligence finding and usually a price adjustment.
  3. Act on contribution at risk: every HIGH account gets a named owner, a second relationship built this quarter, and an early renewal conversation.
  4. Re-run it quarterly. Concentration falls slowly through growth elsewhere; vulnerability can fall this quarter.

The profitability view of the same book is the customer whale curve, and if an exit is even a maybe, this reads alongside the add-backs workbook. If the concentration number is uncomfortable, start a conversation two years before a buyer starts it for you.